It feels like time is racing and standing still all at the same time. Have we been in lock down forever, or has it just been a few short weeks? There are times when I feel nothing has changed over the last few weeks, but our challenges with our supply chain, morph, change and present different obstacles every day.

What’s going on with the data?

It feels like time is racing and standing still all at the same time.  Have we been in lock down forever, or has it just been a few short weeks.  There are times when I feel nothing has changed over the last few weeks, but our challenges with our supply chain, morph, change and present different obstacles every day.

Riding the peak is an excruciating experience for our nation. We are all seeing data, lots of data about deaths, recoveries, cases…..but no one really know what to believe.   This data is manipulated; we all know this.  The deaths are not in hospitals alone, no one is accurately recording how many deaths are occurring in care homes, how many deaths are occurring in the homes of people who are being cared for by our stars who are providing home care.  The deaths data is being skewed by people who are passing of natural causes; are people who are afflicted by COVID-19 and suffer with COPD – what is going on their death certificate?

Can we be certain that the data in terms of deaths in hospitals is accurate, how much is being inaccurately recorded, admin errors and data which lend support to a certain perspective?  The number of recorded cases should also be taken with scepticism, because the facilities to test people are simply not there on a wide scale.  So the truth of the matter is that no one really knows how many people are COVID positive in your local area, and nationally.

So what can we take from this data?  When analysing data like this, you should just take the data and importantly the trends it is reflecting to be true.  So when looking at our data trends, and I’m stressing trends here, in terms of UK deaths, this is sharply dropping.  The Virus took a longer time to build, and social distancing has really worked, because the virus incubates for at least a week, the distance we have kept from our loved ones, our friends, our running partners…. has really worked and that is reflected by the trends we have seen in the sharp decline of the deaths.

Our NHS, Care Workers and Home Care teams really are true heros’ and are working so hard, and are putting themselves at huge risk and we as a nation can only thank and support them.  PPE is a really contentious issue in the media and with distributors like us.  The simple facts are that there is not enough to go around.  NHS are being given priority, and the news is reflecting that there is not enough for NHS, that leaves the care sector, home care, care homes distinctly lacking in supplies.  My first hand experience of our long term relationships with care homes here at Astral is reflective of this shortage, and our shelves are now completely bare of all gloves, aprons, masks ….. so we are powerless to help, powerless to supply.

Our supply chain for PPE has been interrupted by the Cabinet Office, so all supplies are now being allocated by the Cabinet Office, and my information to date is that it is not being distributed effectively enough/or there is simply not enough of it.  Customers still phone us, councils, hospitals, care homes asking us for PPE.  I don’t have the answers as to what has gone wrong, however I can only talk of my first hand experience.

My advisors are now predicting fluctuations in COVID-19 amongst the population, so the cases will rise and fall like a honey bee going from flower to flower, and COVID-19 will be around for a while.  This is why the government have extended our social distancing policy.  They are trying to control the second wave – and there will be a second wave.  The question is, how big will the second wave be….. that depends entirely on your behaviour.  The second wave is predicted to arrive in August/September, and our government are trying to control the spread to make sure that our care sectors can save as many people as possible.  The second wave is likely to coincide with flu season, which could be absolutely disastrous.

If people do start to go back to normal prematurely, the second wave will arrive earlier.  If business who are desperate for revenue open early, the second wave will arrive earlier. The analysts are predicting small blips and some fluctuation in deaths, and then the virus will build again. But to what extent will the virus build to?  Will we have to re-live this nightmare again?

If you take appropriate action, then no, it won’t be so bad next time.  Hand Washing is so very important, as well as hand sanitisers when you can’t get to a sink.  Astral are proud to have been approached by Lloyds pharmacy to use this graphic to demonstrate how to wash your hands properly.

Category
Tags

Comments are closed